The rise in gasoline prices was not long in coming. Gasoline prices have risen again in Russia “Prices will not rise sharply”
Gasoline is becoming more expensive quickly. Now a liter of 95 costs 43 rubles 38 kopecks, this is the average price in the country. And in mid-March it cost an average of 41 rubles 20 kopecks. There is already talk that by the fall gasoline will cost almost 50 rubles. Hardly…
This is how gasoline prices have risen since 2010, almost linearly. A little faster, a little slower. Sometimes it even became cheaper. But overall the trend was very stable. Nothing fundamentally has changed in this market. They say that oil prices on the world market are rising, and therefore gasoline is becoming more expensive.
But there were times when oil cost $30 a barrel, and there were times when it was $130, and the trend remained like this. The price of 95 is plus two or three rubles per year.
“Oh, what a nightmare, 42 rubles 70 kopecks diesel,” the driver is horrified. And gasoline bites even harder. 92nd more than 40 rubles. In the eyes of every driver there is a silent question: what next?
“Almost five rubles!” Well, four, okay. During the week!" - the taxi driver is worried.
Of course, not in a week - fuel prices have been rising since the beginning of May, but that doesn’t make it any easier. Not even taxi drivers.
Every time you come to a gas station, you never cease to wonder - where are the prices going? The 95th is already 44.85 - almost 45 rubles. As economists say, a psychological mark. And everything seems to be as usual - the gun is the same, and even smells the same - why is it getting so expensive? But if greed had a smell, we would, of course, feel the difference.
However, this is a unique case when greed is not a vice. The market dictates its own. Everyone is forced to be greedy - the state when it increases excise taxes on fuel, because the budget needs to be filled, and, of course, producers and sellers of gasoline and diesel fuel, because a business at a loss is not a business. This, of course, does not console consumers, and therefore all the blame goes towards gas station owners.
“There is a certain negative, which is really determined by the speed of change in price tags at gas stations. But we only act in the conditions that exist in the state,” notes Grigory Sergienko, executive director of the Russian Fuel Union.
The main condition is pricing. In the cost of a liter of gasoline, oil accounts for only 6% to 8%. Then processing, transportation and retail network costs are about 25%. There is much less than 10 left for profit, because approximately 60% is taxes and excise taxes. The numbers at gas stations change along with them.
But this is only one of the factors behind the current rise in prices. And the answer to the eternal question “Who is to blame?” still exists.
“The very simple answer is international integration. Over the past 20-25 years, the whole world, this is not only our specificity, has become much more closely connected with each other, that is, on the one hand, we have gained access to a huge range of goods from all over the world, but on the other hand, the cost of many services has slowly is being drawn up to the cost characteristic of the whole world, and all over the world, with the rare exception of countries like Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, fuel is quite expensive,” explains Sergei Khestanov, associate professor of the Department of Financial Markets at RANEPA.
And it continues to rise in price. In Europe, following the rise in world oil prices - there the dependence is much stronger than here - gasoline and diesel fuel have become more expensive. And here it is, international integration in full swing - Russian manufacturers have a logical desire to sell more there.
“Everyone who wants to earn money will do everything in order to really earn money. If they charge more for the same product, this means abroad, or sell a ton of oil or a basket of oil products that can be sent there, they are in demand there, Naturally, this product goes where they pay more for it,” says Grigory Sergienko, executive director of the Russian Fuel Union.
And here, on the domestic market, there is a threat of fuel shortage, which is superimposed on seasonal demand - sowing work both in the field and in gardens. Plus summer preventative maintenance at oil refineries. As a result, prices creep up.
However, here the Federal Antimonopoly Service is closely monitoring those who want to earn money through additional exports.
“From June 1, duties on both oil and petroleum products are expected to increase; accordingly, the attractiveness of exports is reduced and an incentive is created for fuel to be supplied to the domestic market,” says Deputy Head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia Anatoly Golomolzin.
The punishing hand of the FAS will no doubt reach out to those who try to create an artificial deficit, but here they are not trying to punish everyone - on the contrary, they are looking for a balance of interests.
“We are talking about the need to further improve the tax system; now we are talking about the advisability of some reduction in excise taxes on petroleum products and the introduction of a mechanism for flexible setting of excise taxes. And this is the mechanism - we are currently holding such consultations with the Ministry of Finance - we hope that it will help make the situation on the market more stable,” explains Deputy Head of the FAS of Russia Anatoly Golomolzin.
But gasoline has already become more expensive, and everyone knows that everything else usually follows suit - after all, say, you need to bring groceries to stores, spending more on fuel. However, economists say: this time everything is more complicated. And surprisingly, it benefits consumers who traditionally find themselves on the fringe.
“We are in a situation that is quite unique for the Russian economy, when we have low interest rates, probably record lows in the entire post-Soviet history, and we have record low inflation. This is due, among other things, to the fact that restrictions on effective demand have come into effect, that is, an attempt by enterprises to raise prices leads to their sales falling. This forces us to use savings at all stages, and therefore we cannot expect a strong increase in inflation due to the cost of fuel,” says Sergei Khestanov, associate professor of the Department of Financial Markets at RANEPA.
But this is unless something out of the ordinary happens, like a sharp increase in oil prices. And since politics is always close to oil, the market, according to experts, reacts with alarm to any statements. Take, for example, the United States' decision to end the nuclear deal with Iran.
“Currently the situation with Iran is quite tense. And Iran, it is clear, is one of the key suppliers of oil to the world market. It is clear that if there are sanctions or some unfavorable situation gets worse, then supplies may be reduced. In general, it is expected in the near future. Naturally, all this fuels speculators and investors to drive prices up. And prices, including due to this geopolitical factor, are now heating up and going up,” explains Vyacheslav Kulagin, director of the Center for the Study of World Energy Markets at the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The key word is speculators. Trading literally air - or oil futures. That is, contracts for oil that has not yet been produced. They don't get that much of it at all. But the system has existed for so long that people have already come to terms with it. Gas station customers also seem to have no choice.
Oil becomes more expensive - gasoline becomes more expensive.
Oil becomes cheaper and gasoline becomes more expensive.
Gasoline is purposeful.
Be like gasoline.
Jokes aside, the story surrounding gasoline is indeed extremely interesting. And not only from a purely practical point of view - how much and when will it rise in price again, but also as a reflection of what is actually happening in Russia and the Russian economy, writes the analyst Vadim Zhartun, decided to find out what was happening with gasoline prices.
It is better to unwind this tangle from the end - from 2018, in which gasoline prices immediately increased by 11%. Of course, gasoline prices have risen before this (in 2014, 92nd cost 29.45 and now - 42.45), but never so sharply and for no apparent reason.
Ultimatum
Of course, the government is concerned about the price of gasoline. Not because he cares very much about the population, of course, but because, firstly, protests over pension reform have not yet died down (over 9 months, 2,154 protests took place in Russia, of which 46.5% were over retirement age), and, secondly, such a sharp increase does not in any way correspond to the officially declared inflation rate of 4% - serfs may suspect something and be indignant.
That gasoline prices are already being artificially restrained can be seen from what is happening to small wholesale buyers: discounts on fuel cards of cargo carriers are being cancelled, and wholesale prices in some cases are higher than retail prices.
In addition, starting next year, VAT will increase by 2%, which will automatically lead to an increase in prices by at least this amount. In addition, it was planned to raise the excise tax on gasoline, but this is now in question.
In general, the government went to the oil workers and politely asked what the matter was. Some media wrote: “Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak threatened / gave instructions / delivered an ultimatum to the oil workers,” but please don’t believe this nonsense.
There can be no talk of any ultimatums, and all these loud statements are just a cheesy comedy that is played out in front of us in order to hide what is really happening.
The oil workers, of course, quickly explained to the government what was happening. Firstly, you, gentlemen, officials, got too greedy - in the price of gasoline, only the mineral extraction tax, VAT and excise tax amount to 55%, and together with other taxes - at 65%. If you want cheap gasoline, curb your appetites and reduce excise taxes. Try to spend less on the security forces and don’t try to make the budget surplus for some reason.
Secondly, you are playing with geopolitics. For a long time, the ruble to dollar exchange rate, as if pegged, followed the price of a barrel of oil. Therefore, the cost of a barrel in rubles remained stable and fluctuated smoothly in the range from 3,000 to 4,000. Now, thanks to sanctions, the ruble has become untied from oil (that is, in fact, it has simply collapsed relative to it) and a barrel costs from 5,000 to 6,000 rubles. And if earlier the cost of a liter of gasoline was about 8 rubles, now it is all 16, and right now a liter of 92 should cost about 50 rubles.
The government mumbled something incomprehensible in response, but temporarily reduced the excise tax by 3 rubles, which is clearly not enough to compensate for the increase in costs. Another 5 had to be taken somewhere. Just like that, for philanthropic reasons, the oil workers, of course, did not agree to pay for this delta from their own pockets.
The government immediately began to look for at whose expense this could be accomplished if the people did not want to pay more and the oil workers did not want to receive less. I searched and, oddly enough, found it.
To be torn to pieces
For the temporary (until March 2019) withholding of fuel prices, the government decided to pay oil workers through independent gas station networks - essentially putting them in a hopeless situation and giving large oil companies the opportunity to acquire retail fuel for next to nothing - 15 out of 25 thousand gas stations in the country.
How this is done: since June 2018, the retail price of fuel at gas stations has been fixed, tied to the official inflation rate, and thereby limiting the margin of independent gas stations from above. And just the other day, the government banned traders from participating in exchange trading in gasoline - they say that it is because of them, the damned speculators, that prices are rising.
I won’t remind you how the USSR fought against speculators and what came of it. Here everything is even worse: the trader’s markup is mere pennies, incomparable with the fat chunk of taxes that the government takes for itself. But traders sell gasoline to independent gas stations in small quantities and with deferred payment. And if until now a gas station could (conditionally) take one tanker of fuel per month from a trader, sell it and pay off, now it will have to go to large refineries, which will say: take a railway tank and pay for it right away, and at exorbitant prices at that, because you, unlike a trader, are a small buyer.
It is clear that for many small networks this is like death - those who cannot find alternative suppliers and working capital will be forced to close.
In general, in the next six months a huge number of gas stations will change owners. Will this make us feel better? No, of course not. The market is monopolized and competitors are destroyed not in order to distribute gasoline to the population for next to nothing, but in order to make money from it. Therefore, when the redistribution of gas stations ends, prices will go up again.
The essence of the tax maneuver is simple: now the government takes a duty only on oil exported abroad, but wants to take it on all oil produced, which theoretically would allow revenues to the treasury to more than double, because 53% of Russian oil is consumed on the domestic market.
Therefore, over the course of several years, the export duty will decrease, and the mineral extraction tax rate, which is similar in formula and size, will increase.
Until now, export duties have helped keep domestic oil prices low. In fact, the domestic price of oil is equal to the Brent oil exchange quote minus $1.5-3 discounts per barrel for the lower quality of our oil, minus the export duty (about 9 rubles per kg) minus transportation costs (about 1 ruble per kg). Accordingly, if now 1 kg of oil on the international market costs 26 rubles, then on the domestic market it costs about 16 (but the price range is very wide).
If right now the export duty is simply replaced by the mineral extraction tax, then oil in Russia will cost 25 rubles, and gasoline - 62 rubles. To prevent this from happening, the government plans to compensate this difference to gasoline producers for the domestic market using a negative excise tax.
The question arises: why was it necessary to fence this whole garden if in the end nothing will change? Will change. And the answer to this question lies somewhere in the area of Russian imperial ambitions and nostalgia for the USSR.
Union
When the USSR collapsed, Russia clung in every possible way to its scattered fragments, trying to connect them, if not politically, then at least economically. As a result of these attempts, the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was born.
Among other things, this meant that Belarus could buy Russian oil without export duty, and then sell it to the West and pocket the difference between the price on the domestic and foreign markets. Of course, this regularly caused displeasure in Russia and attempts to somehow turn on this tap, returning income to its treasury.
In response, Father Lukashenko also regularly made wide eyes: “What about the union? We are brothers!” and blackmailed Russia by increasing transit tariffs.
In general, Russia had to choose: either pay for the illusion of having allies, or break this alliance. However, instead, she decided to take a third route - to solve the problem of tariff unification through a tax maneuver.
In fact, the idea was to return income from the re-export of Russian oil to Russia, regulate the resulting imbalance in the price of fuel with a negative excise tax, and even adjust it in such a way as to stimulate the development of modern oil refining industries in the country.
Complexity
The idea of robbing alliance partners is beautiful, no doubt about it. On paper. In practice, everything is somewhat more complicated. Let's start with the fact that the export duty itself was calculated relatively simply, using three different formulas depending on the average cost of oil on the world market.
With an oil price of $182.5 per ton ($24.9 per barrel), the formula for calculating the export duty looks like this:
EP = $29.2 + 30% * (C – $182.5)
Where C is the average oil price.
Taking into account the tax maneuver, the mineral extraction tax formula turned out to be this:
MET = 919 * Kts -
Difficult? But that is not all. Have you forgotten about the excise tax, which should compensate for the increase in the mineral extraction tax? Here is its formula:
Ans = ((Cneft * 7.3 - 182.5) * 0.3 + 29.2) * P * Spyu * Kcorr
Essentially, this is an inside-out export duty. R is the average exchange rate of the ruble, Kcorr synchronizes the simultaneous growth of the mineral extraction tax and the reduction of the export duty, and Spyu is the most important coefficient, which, in fact, determines what the amount of compensation will be and whether there will be any at all.
When calculating this coefficient, the real hell begins. I counted at least 19(!) variables on which it depends.
Total: if you are a domestic producer of petroleum products, then to make management decisions you need to keep in mind three dozen coefficients, each of which the government can change whenever it wishes.
And this extremely complex system of fine-tuning should work in conditions of instability, total unprofessionalism and corruption? Seriously?!
As soon as something changes in the market (the next sanctions, for example), the system will begin to become feverish. As soon as the government needs more money and tweaks a couple of coefficients, the system will begin to frenzy. As soon as some oil oligarch decides that he needs a bigger yacht and lobbies for adjustments that are beneficial to him, the system will begin to frenzy.
Simply put, it will always be in a fever, the entire industry will suffer from this and, first of all, small producers who will not be able to kick open the door of the Deputy Prime Minister and yell: “What have you done, you brute, again?!” Bring everything back to the damn mother!”
Simplicity
There are only 32 large oil refineries in Russia, owned by 16 companies. And in order to regulate their excise taxes, 30 coefficients are needed? For what?!
On the good side, we need to extremely simplify the formula for calculating the mineral extraction tax, abandon the stupid idea of negative excise taxes and allow the price of gasoline to come to the European level. According to official data, the share of gasoline in the consumer basket is less than 5% and the increase in its cost could be compensated to the population by reducing VAT or personal income tax.
Yes, it would hit someone harder, but there is at least some justice in this - those who use it should pay for gasoline. In addition, expensive gasoline will stimulate the use of public transport and the introduction of electric vehicles, which is beneficial both for the environment and for combating traffic jams.
However, simple solutions are for the smart. We will continue to pile dozens of coefficients on top of each other, and when they fail, we will rudely interfere with market mechanisms without really understanding how they work, and will only aggravate the situation.
Results
As a result of the tax maneuver, players of the scale of Rosneft will receive windfall profits, and the rest will only be problems. It will not be possible to fully compensate for the rise in gasoline prices with such a complex system, even if the government really wants this, so there may well be periodic shortages of gasoline on the market with all the ensuing consequences.
Investment prospects for the industry in conditions of unpredictable taxation and permanent sanctions are also quite vague. What is the point of investing in the construction or modernization of a refinery if the tax environment is so unstable?
The only thing that is already clear is that this whole tax phantasmagoria is not capable of stopping the rise in gasoline prices, creates instability, threatens a potential gasoline shortage, slows down investment and stimulates corruption.
What makes up the price of gasoline?
To begin with, it’s worth understanding what components make up the current price of gasoline that we see at gas stations. Oddly enough, the price of oil itself occupies a very small share in it - about 10%, and about the same amount costs to be spent on its refining. Approximately 15-20% of the price of gasoline gains “on the way to the tank” - this is transportation, as well as the costs and markups of wholesalers and retailers. But the remaining 60-65% can be divided between tax fees levied at different stages.
The first is the mineral extraction tax, the mineral extraction tax, which since 2017 has been set at 919 rubles per ton. The second is VAT, which is currently 18%, but may soon increase to 20%. Well, the third is the excise tax on motor fuel, the share of which in the final price is about 30%. The rise in prices since the beginning of the year turned out to be so sharp that the government even abandoned its planned increase by 600-700 rubles per ton, and even on the contrary, initiated the introduction of a temporary “benefit”, reducing the excise tax on gasoline and diesel by 3,000 and 2,000 rubles, respectively. . As a result, the excise tax per ton of gasoline became equal to 8,213 rubles, and for diesel fuel – 5,665 rubles.
Why didn't gasoline become cheaper after excise taxes were reduced?
However, the expected effect from the “emergency” reduction in excise taxes was not achieved. By introducing preferential rates, the government assumed that they would not only slow down price growth, but also reduce the selling retail price: for gasoline - by 2.2 rubles, and for diesel - by 1.7 rubles.
In reality, car owners did not see such a noticeable reduction in price - and this is obviously explained by the fact that wholesale prices for motor fuel have increased much more than retail prices since the beginning of the year. According to suppliers' estimates, the increase was about 30%, while the price tag at gas stations, as we remember, added “only” 10%. Thus, having received relief, market participants sharply reduced the growth rate of retail prices, but did not lower them, thereby compensating for lost profits.
However, even in such conditions, independent gas stations continue to send SOS signals, and this is not the first year - they also said in 2017 that profits had fallen to almost zero.
The reason is simple: independent companies that do not produce fuel, but purchase it in bulk for retail resale, are directly dependent on selling prices. In turn, large “vertically integrated” companies that have their own production are a little more free in their actions, and as a result, the price tag at their gas stations, taking into account customer bonus cards and loyalty programs, turns out to be a ruble or two lower than that of independent resellers. But taking into account the fact that the latter provide about 60% of the available supply on the market, their role cannot be underestimated - and it is independent entrepreneurs who are among those who promise us “monopolization and gasoline at 100” in the event of their market demise.
But a negative scenario with a catastrophic rise in prices comes from not only the owners of private gas stations, but also from major players in the oil market. What is the matter, and how likely is such a scenario?
Why are we promised price increases?
If in the recent past the increase in the cost of gasoline could be explained by a banal increase in excise taxes (over the past five years, the excise tax on diesel fuel has increased by 74%, and on gasoline - more than doubled) coupled with fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and oil prices, then in the foreseeable future the fundamental pricing mechanisms for motor fuels. We are talking about the so-called tax maneuver, which should increase the “transparency” of financial and oil flows for the state, while allowing flexible regulation of the distribution of raw materials between the domestic market and exports.
How does the system work now?
To explain the essence of the tax maneuver, it is worth first briefly describing the current scheme. Now oil producing companies pay tax twice: first at a fixed rate for each ton in the form of mineral extraction tax (mineral extraction tax), and then in the form of an export duty, which in the case of oil is 30%.
At the same time, the domestic market receives “as much as it needs to stay afloat”: export remains more profitable. Moreover, the export of not only oil, but also finished motor fuel: its export price per ton is 5-9 thousand rubles higher than the cost for the domestic market, which, of course, also does not benefit the latter. Thus, the FAS has repeatedly noted that prices at Russian gas stations were rising due to a decrease in fuel supplies - oil companies, as expected, denied these accusations.
What is a tax maneuver?
The essence of the tax maneuver is to gradually abolish oil export duties in the period from 2019 to 2024, while simultaneously increasing the mineral extraction tax. This will allow the state to receive a single tax on all oil produced, not just exported, and also “manage flows” by subsidizing oil workers what is sent to the domestic market. This idea itself, in general, is not new: export duties were reduced back in 2015, along with a corresponding increase in the mineral extraction tax. However, in the next 5 years the process should reach its logical conclusion.
A “floating excise tax” will have to become a tool for managing the distribution of gasoline flows in the new conditions. It is designed to compensate oil workers for the difference between the cost of fuel when sold on the domestic market and for export: now export prices are significantly (by about 8 thousand rubles per ton) higher than domestic ones. However, for now, the option proposed by the Ministry of Finance takes into account the maximum difference between them at the level of 3 thousand rubles, while offering to compensate up to half the difference in cost - that is, no more than 1.5 thousand rubles. And if the current delta between external and internal price tags remains at the same high level, oil producing companies will have no incentive to leave gasoline in the country.
What will happen to excise taxes?
Another “increasing” factor that is worth considering is excise taxes on motor fuel, which, unlike export duties, will not disappear anywhere. Moreover, it is worth remembering that the above-mentioned “benefits” in the form of reduced excise taxes were introduced as an emergency “brake” on the growth of retail prices, but only for six months, until the end of 2018. The final decision, according to Kommersant, has not yet been made by the Ministry of Finance, but the preliminary plan involves a further increase in excise taxes - not relative to the current “preferential” rate, but relative to what was before the reduction.
Under this scenario, in 2019, the excise tax on gasoline will be 12.3 thousand rubles per ton, and on diesel fuel - 8.5 thousand, and given that excise taxes are actually directly included in the price of gasoline, a simple comparison of these indicators with the current ones, amounting to 8. 2 and 5.3 thousand, respectively, does not promise anything other than another increase in the selling price at gas stations, and immediately by a couple of rubles. The government, however, thinks differently, planning to force oil workers to keep prices virtually unchanged and threatening to increase export duties to 90% in case of disobedience. Yes, those same duties that have already been decided to be eliminated by 2024. Thus, in conditions of such a “swing”, when either oil companies or the state will have to cut their incomes, the task of “conserving” retail prices for motor fuel seems practically unsolvable.
What do oil workers say about the new scheme?
The oil industry, in particular the management of Gazprom Neft, considers the task of containing retail price tags unsolvable without a reduction in excise taxes. The general director of the company, Alexander Dyukov, entrusts the task of containing prices to the state, believing that there is no shortage of fuel in the domestic market, and prices for it need to be reduced by reducing excise taxes - even lower than the “preferential” level that is currently established.
The owners of independent gas stations also agree with him, who, in an effort to survive, voice the need for extreme measures: complete liberalization of gasoline prices or the abolition of excise taxes on fuel. In their opinion, only this will allow them to maintain profitability and thereby avoid the situation from their favorite “horror story” - monopolization of the market by large players with a subsequent uncontested rise in prices.
Well, another forecast voiced by Alexander Dyukov is the equalization of fuel prices on the Russian and “export” markets if the state maintains its course towards completing the tax maneuver with the abolition of export duties and a corresponding increase in the mineral extraction tax. In his opinion, in such conditions there will be no way to “protect” the domestic market, since the price of oil “for our own” and “for others” will be equalized, and after it the prices of motor fuel will creep up, which will increase by at least one and a half times, or even become equal to European ones.
Any ideas on how to keep prices down?
One of the latest initiatives, which, by the way, was put forward by the oil workers themselves, echoes what the state represented by the FAS is now fighting for - saturating the domestic market with fuel. The essence of the proposal is to establish for oil companies a certain percentage of the total volume of fuel produced, which they must send to the domestic market. This should solve two problems: eliminate fuel shortages, and at the same time curb the rise in fuel prices. True, this measure in itself does not solve the issue of a potential rise in fuel prices due to an increase in the mineral extraction tax and the equalization of export and “domestic” oil prices.
So what are you waiting for?
If we rely on more or less certain facts about the near future, we should definitely expect a further increase in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. It is clearly premature to talk about a hundred rubles per liter, and even about a one and a half times increase in price, but if plans to increase state excise taxes continue and the introduction of a tax maneuver according to the current “mathematically unfavorable” scheme begins, gasoline will easily gain a couple of rubles, or even fives. fast. But further growth will obviously be limited by two factors: the desire of the state to maintain reasonable prices that do not cause unrest among the population (which is confirmed by the emergency reduction of excise taxes this year) and the struggle between oil producing companies and the state to maintain the maximum possible profitability of this segment. And unless they find an absolute compromise, we are likely to see slow but unpleasant numerical records at gas stations again.
What is your gasoline price forecast for 2019?
From January 2019, gasoline will become more expensive in Russia due to an increase in excise taxes. Experts predict a significant increase in prices, and Anton Siluanov rules out a sharp jump.
According to the Accounts Chamber, from the beginning of next year the excise tax will increase by one and a half times, which will lead to higher prices for gasoline. In this case, additional compensatory and deterrent measures will have to be taken. From January, the excise tax price on gasoline should be 12,374 rubles/ton (+49.9%), diesel fuel - 8,541 rubles/ton (+66.3%). Now it is 8,213 rubles/ton and 5,665 rubles/ton, respectively.
There won't be any big price hikes - expert opinion
Economists say that not only an increase in the excise tax price, but also an increase in VAT by 2% - up to 20% - will lead to a rise in gasoline prices. According to Anton Siluanov, there will be no sharp rise in prices.
No races are planned. Despite the increase in excise taxes, starting from January 1 next year, we have a negative excise tax mechanism, which will be transferred to oil refining companies, as a result of which this increase in load will be compensated, the minister said.
Previously, Alexander Novak said that the rise in prices for gasoline and diesel fuel will be approximately at the level of inflation, and the government has created tools that will help offset the increase in excise tax prices and other factors that affect the price of fuel.
The Russian government will take measures to prevent prices from rising sharply, as this will lead to strong social discontent. Prices can be kept down by compensating payments to refineries. Economists believe that in 2019, 1 liter of fuel will be 3-4 rubles more expensive than today.
Accounts Chamber forecasts
The Accounts Chamber predicts a new jump in retail gasoline prices in Russia in 2019. The reason, according to auditors, may be the planned increase in excise taxes on fuel from January 1, 2019.
“An increase in the excise tax by 1.5 times from January 1, 2019 may again lead to a sharp increase in gasoline prices and require the adoption of additional compensatory and deterrent measures,” says the Accounts Chamber in its conclusion on the draft budget for 2019-2021.
In a negative scenario, “additional compensatory and deterrent measures” will have to be taken, the Accounts Chamber is confident. Let us recall that in August the government announced that from January 1, 2019, excise taxes on diesel fuel and gasoline will increase by 2.7 thousand rubles. and 3.7 thousand rubles. per ton respectively.
It was planned to begin raising excise taxes on motor fuel this year: according to the government’s plan, they were supposed to increase by about 700 rubles from July 1. - up to 11,892 thousand per ton of gasoline and up to 8,258 thousand rubles per ton of diesel fuel. However, last spring a sharp rise in prices for petroleum products began, during which fuel at gas stations within a couple of weeks went for 40 rubles per liter, and in some regions prices approached 47-50 rubles. per liter
In order to prevent a further increase in retail prices, Deputy Prime Minister for the Fuel and Energy Complex Dmitry Kozak had to negotiate manually with the oil workers. In return for the obligation to maintain prices in the wholesale and retail sectors, vertically integrated oil companies received, instead of the expected increase in excise taxes, a reduction of 3 thousand rubles. for gasoline and 2 thousand rubles per ton of diesel fuel. This made it possible to stabilize the situation, but did not bring a serious reduction in prices at gas stations.
As the Accounting Board notes, the reduction in excise taxes on gasoline allowed only a slight reduction in retail prices in July-August - by 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. This was “not enough to compensate for the rapid growth in prices accumulated since the beginning of the year,” the department emphasizes.
Independent sellers, representatives of the Russian Fuel Union, a number of experts and the oil industry themselves previously warned that an increase in gasoline prices is inevitable under current conditions.
The government claims that it will not allow prices to rise in retail: firstly, from January 1, 2019, the completion of the tax maneuver in the oil industry will begin, providing for a reduction in customs duties while increasing the mineral extraction tax; within the framework of it, a negative excise tax is provided for oil refineries, which, according to according to Kozak, must “fulfill the mission of a market instrument to contain domestic fuel prices.” It is also possible to compensate refineries for part of the cost of oil on the domestic market in the form of a special damping surcharge.
The Russian gasoline market is structured in a unique way; an oligopoly with elements of a monopoly has been established on it, notes Aleksey Antonov, an analyst at Alor Broker. Just in case, oil companies factor into the price of gasoline, in addition to the excise tax, other rising taxes, general uncertainty about economic growth and, in general, about the stability of the economy.
In Russia, on average, the cost of AI-92 gasoline dropped by 1 kopeck to 41.54 rubles per liter, AI-95 remained at the same level at 44.83 rubles per liter, AI-98 increased by 1 kopeck, amounting to 50.27 rubles per liter.
Of course, additional volumes could significantly improve the situation on the domestic market, especially considering that it is now premium and there is potential for price reductions,”
The rise in prices for diesel fuel in the Novosibirsk region resumed after a short break. A liter of fuel has risen in price by one and a half rubles in a week.
The continued rise in prices for diesel fuel and gasoline was recorded in Novosibirskstat. According to statisticians, in the previous reporting period, the cost of a liter of fuel of all types remained the same - on November 12, diesel fuel cost 47.27 rubles, the same as the week before. However, as of November 19, the increase in diesel fuel price was 3.1%. Thus, the average price of a liter of diesel fuel in the region was 48.71 rubles, which is almost one and a half rubles more.
The cost of AI-98 gasoline also increased – by 0.3%. Thus, on November 12, a liter of this brand cost an average of 47.95 rubles; on November 19, its cost was 48.09 rubles. Prices for other brands of gasoline, AI-92 and AI-95, remain unchanged - 40.43 rubles and 43.41 rubles, respectively.
“At the observed gas stations in Novosibirsk, AI-92 gasoline could be purchased at a price from 40.2 to 41.3 rubles per liter, AI-95 - from 43.1 to 44.4 rubles per liter, AI-98 - from 47.6 to 50.5 rubles per liter, diesel fuel - from 46.8 to 53.5 rubles per liter,” Novosibirskstat reported.
Since the beginning of 2018, diesel fuel in Russia has risen in price by 14%, and gasoline by 9.3%. Prices rose sharply from April to June, then stabilized. The next increase began in October.
Agreements do not imply freezing only retail prices, but also wholesale. For each region, the cost of a ton of gasoline and diesel was established, which is considered competitive and makes it possible to maintain the profitability of retail outlets independent of large companies operators gas station networks at an acceptable level, allowing you to sell goods at a fixed price and not lose business.
At the same time, the cost of AI-92 gasoline in most cases remained unchanged. Only the independent seller Circle Key Russia LLC's price increased by 1 kopeck, and Vitek LLC's price increased by 36 kopecks. For AI-95, you will have to pay 16 kopecks more per liter at the gas stations of Circle Key Russia LLC and 24 kopecks more at the gas stations of Vitek LLC.
Retail diesel prices accelerated their rise last week. Thus, fuel at gas stations increased in price by 2.2%, to 46.29 rubles. per liter, which resulted in a rapid rise in prices on the stock exchange. As at the end of last year, independent gas stations complained about the rise in prices for wholesale fuel, but this year the situation has worsened against the backdrop of freezing retail prices at large oil companies. At the same time, gasoline prices have been stable for two weeks in a row, which happened against the background of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak’s order to carry out unscheduled inspections of independent sellers that exceed indicative prices by more than 4%.
Rosstat indicates that for the week, from November 12 to 19, the price of diesel fuel at Russian gas stations increased by 1 ruble. RT writes about this, citing the department’s website.
Gasoline price rise today 11/22/2018 Exclusive information.
From the consumer's point of view, such a scenario would be less favorable than with relatively stable fuel prices, regardless of the level of oil prices, she believes.
Or they also write that the mayor of Belogorsk Melyukov complained to the city police that he had been slandered: a certain Belogorsk woman spoke unflatteringly about the vocabulary of the head of the administration, saying that he called the housing “housing for cattle.” Both these and other articles are interesting and important, but the most-most of them...
So, the very best of them is about the LDPR’s proposal to name our airport in honor of ex-governors Kozhemyako or Kozlov. The arguments are weighty: it was under their rule that the region achieved high indicators (what exactly is not deciphered), which means their names are worthy of perpetuation. True, these ex-governors are still alive, and therefore, according to the voting conditions, they do not have the opportunity to go down in history from this entrance. But the proposal itself, you see, is interesting. Original. Makes you think that the Amur region is famous not only for Muravyov-Amursky.
We also note that the rise in fuel prices continues, despite the government’s agreement with oil companies to freeze gasoline prices. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said on November 13 on the Rossiya-24 TV channel that given the current market conditions, there are no prerequisites for a significant reduction in gasoline prices.
Consumer prices for motor gasoline on average in Russia for the period from November 12 to November 18, 2018 did not change in percentage terms compared to the previous reporting period, as well as a week earlier, after increasing by 0.1% for five weeks in a row. Such data is provided today by the Federal State Statistics Service.
As Rosstat states, in the country as a whole, the average consumer price for gasoline as of November 19 remained at the level of 43.47 rubles on November 12 (from November 6 to November 12, the average retail price of gasoline also did not change).
And so - I repeat - two whole pages. I finished reading the text and looked at the illustrations to the very end. I looked at the headline again - they are definitely writing about Ukraine, not about us? Calmed down: about Ukraine. There was also Euromaidan.
Over the past week, prices for diesel fuel continued to rise, jumping by 2.2% to RUB 46.29. per liter, follows from Rosstat data. Over the previous three weeks, the maximum increase was 0.4%; over the year, diesel fuel rose in price by 14%. At the same time, the average retail price for gasoline has not changed for the second week in a row and amounts to 43.47 rubles. per liter In particular, a liter of AI-92 costs 41.54 rubles, AI-95 - 44.83 rubles. Among the federal districts, the highest rates of growth in gasoline prices were characteristic of the Siberian Federal District, where the share of independent gas stations is high, ICSI writes in its analytical material based on Rosstat data; the lowest rates of growth in prices for motor gasoline occurred in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. To a certain extent, this is due to the fact that in many Far Eastern cities surveyed by Rosstat, the level of gasoline prices traditionally exceeds the national average, the study says.
At the same time, independent gas stations were afraid that the rise in exchange quotations for diesel fuel would continue, and with a forced increase in price tags at gas stations, sales turnover would fall. Now the exchange price of diesel fuel is at the level of early October (56.9 thousand rubles per ton). A significant increase in prices for winter diesel fuel is traditional due to the small volume of supply.
Gasoline price rise - breaking news today. .
The Russian Fuel Union proposed to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak to cancel the price freeze at gas stations, but this was never done. At the same time, Rosneft acted as the main lobbyist for increasing pressure on independent gas stations in the context of freezing retail prices by large oil companies, accusing independent sellers of inflating prices. As a result, control was tightened: following a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, the Federal Tax Service and the Federal Antimonopoly Service were tasked with unscheduled inspections of independent sellers who keep prices higher than indicative prices by more than 4%.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes that tariffs for calls and Internet may increase by 10-15 percent. In general, reading newspapers every day, I can say with full responsibility that there is no need to publish individual articles about the rise in prices for electricity, communications, housing and communal services, wine and vodka products, sausages, etc., etc., etc. You just need to write in some “main” newspaper once and for all: everything will become more expensive. Or even simpler: life will become more expensive. And then start studying other problems. By the way, I’ll tell you about others now.
“Amurskaya Pravda” today must be read directly line by line, letter by letter, paying close attention to each publication - whatever the material is, it is a reason for taking notes. You will learn that the region has declared war on illegal traders, underground hostels and Chinese tourists who have swapped visits to numerous museums for illegal agricultural work.
The Ministry of Energy, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, oil companies and independent refineries at a meeting at the end of October agreed on measures to stabilize prices on the fuel market. An agreement was reached that prices until the end of the year will remain at the level of the end of May - beginning of June, and then will rise within the limits of annual inflation.
Gasoline prices are going up this year. .